Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 6.698571e-05 0.000080 0.000095 0.000111 0.000130 0.000150 0.000173
2025-02-16 5.354908e-05 0.000071 0.000092 0.000117 0.000147 0.000180 0.000220
2025-02-23 4.396854e-05 0.000063 0.000087 0.000117 0.000153 0.000196 0.000248
2025-03-02 3.441493e-05 0.000054 0.000080 0.000113 0.000155 0.000206 0.000269
2025-03-09 2.782229e-05 0.000048 0.000074 0.000110 0.000157 0.000214 0.000288
2025-03-16 2.326062e-05 0.000043 0.000071 0.000110 0.000162 0.000227 0.000311
2025-03-23 1.996880e-05 0.000040 0.000068 0.000110 0.000167 0.000240 0.000335
2025-03-30 1.670514e-05 0.000036 0.000065 0.000109 0.000171 0.000250 0.000356
2025-04-06 1.351728e-05 0.000032 0.000061 0.000106 0.000171 0.000256 0.000371
2025-04-13 1.177311e-05 0.000030 0.000060 0.000108 0.000177 0.000269 0.000395
2025-04-20 9.131274e-06 0.000026 0.000055 0.000103 0.000174 0.000270 0.000404
2025-04-27 7.649936e-06 0.000024 0.000053 0.000103 0.000177 0.000280 0.000424
2025-05-04 6.065712e-06 0.000021 0.000050 0.000101 0.000180 0.000290 0.000445
2025-05-11 5.390523e-06 0.000021 0.000051 0.000105 0.000191 0.000310 0.000482
2025-05-18 4.463091e-06 0.000019 0.000050 0.000106 0.000196 0.000324 0.000509
2025-05-25 3.181831e-06 0.000016 0.000046 0.000102 0.000194 0.000327 0.000521
2025-06-01 2.342015e-06 0.000014 0.000043 0.000100 0.000194 0.000333 0.000538
2025-06-08 1.787849e-06 0.000013 0.000041 0.000099 0.000197 0.000343 0.000560
2025-06-15 1.421131e-06 0.000012 0.000040 0.000100 0.000203 0.000356 0.000587
2025-06-22 1.035742e-06 0.000011 0.000039 0.000099 0.000205 0.000365 0.000608
2025-06-29 6.796947e-07 0.000009 0.000036 0.000096 0.000204 0.000369 0.000622
2025-07-06 5.200784e-07 0.000009 0.000035 0.000097 0.000210 0.000383 0.000650
2025-07-13 2.809674e-07 0.000007 0.000032 0.000093 0.000206 0.000382 0.000657